Competitive
Opponent: Madison Halloway (R)
MA-06 · 2026 cycle · Fundraising landscape and defectability brief
Opponent raised (cycle)
$612K
Your raised (cycle)
$478K
Open defectability lanes
4
Cross-givers (yours+theirs)
28
Concentration patterns
Donors giving to the opponent in patterns that suggest bundling, family aggregation, or cycle persistence — your defectability targets if the issue alignment is right.
| Donor | Employer | Pattern | To opponent | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Goldberg | Ironwood Strategies LLC | Repeated $3,300 + $2,500 same day | $5,800 | HIGH |
| Lawrence Goldberg | Yellowstone Renewables | Family unit aggregating to $13,200 | $5,300 | HIGH |
| Linda Tanaka | Talia Bioworks | Bundler pattern across 3 cycles | $4,800 | MEDIUM |
| Patrick Quintero | Marshall & Greene Advisors | Bundler pattern across 3 cycles | $4,300 | MEDIUM |
| Helen Castellanos | Apex Construction Group | Bundler pattern across 3 cycles | $3,800 | LOW |
| Elena Thornton | Riverstone Asset Management | Bundler pattern across 3 cycles | $3,300 | LOW |
Open lanes
- Healthcare exec defection — six donors gave to opponent in 2024 but match your platform on ACA preservation.
- Climate-aligned RE bundlers — three RE families gave to opponent on tax issues. Climate offset positioning could flip them.
- Veteran moderates — VFW Post 188 leadership gave to both sides in past three cycles. Position-specific outreach window opening.
- Tech founders (small-dollar) — opponent has not yet asked. Fast-growth lane.
Risk assessment
Opponent has a $134K cash advantage. Their burn rate is ~$48K/mo versus your $36K/mo, which closes the gap inside 6 months at current pace. The healthcare cluster activation in your favor is the most material development of the last 30 days.