PollCap demo · Coastal District
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Competitive

Opponent: Madison Halloway (R)

MA-06 · 2026 cycle · Fundraising landscape and defectability brief

Opponent raised (cycle)

$612K

Your raised (cycle)

$478K

Open defectability lanes

4

Cross-givers (yours+theirs)

28

Concentration patterns

Donors giving to the opponent in patterns that suggest bundling, family aggregation, or cycle persistence — your defectability targets if the issue alignment is right.

DonorEmployerPatternTo opponentRisk
Rachel GoldbergIronwood Strategies LLCRepeated $3,300 + $2,500 same day$5,800HIGH
Lawrence GoldbergYellowstone RenewablesFamily unit aggregating to $13,200$5,300HIGH
Linda TanakaTalia BioworksBundler pattern across 3 cycles$4,800MEDIUM
Patrick QuinteroMarshall & Greene AdvisorsBundler pattern across 3 cycles$4,300MEDIUM
Helen CastellanosApex Construction GroupBundler pattern across 3 cycles$3,800LOW
Elena ThorntonRiverstone Asset ManagementBundler pattern across 3 cycles$3,300LOW

Open lanes

  • Healthcare exec defection — six donors gave to opponent in 2024 but match your platform on ACA preservation.
  • Climate-aligned RE bundlers — three RE families gave to opponent on tax issues. Climate offset positioning could flip them.
  • Veteran moderates — VFW Post 188 leadership gave to both sides in past three cycles. Position-specific outreach window opening.
  • Tech founders (small-dollar) — opponent has not yet asked. Fast-growth lane.

Risk assessment

Opponent has a $134K cash advantage. Their burn rate is ~$48K/mo versus your $36K/mo, which closes the gap inside 6 months at current pace. The healthcare cluster activation in your favor is the most material development of the last 30 days.